The last one, in chronological order, comes from TrendForce. Let's see the data in summary:
Why does coronavirus particularly impact the smartphone sector? There are three reasons identified by TrendForce:
- it is a labor-intensive industry
- production was to start again on the 10th, but was stopped again despite a mild return to work with special checks
- smartphone demand has slowed down further
Moral: in the first quarter of 2020 a drastic drop in shipments of 12% compared to Q1 2019:
Its production is mainly located in Vietnam, but several components come from China. For this we expect a drop in contentbut still a drop: 71.5 million units shipped in Q1 2020 (-3% compared to pre-virus forecasts).
The ban imposed by Trump was not enough: now the coronoavirus makes the life of the Chinese company difficult even at home. The Entity List creates a generalized drop in international markets, now the infection effectively blocks the business also internally. 42.5 million smartphones are expected to ship, -15% compared to previous forecasts.
What consequences will there have on the upcoming iPhone SE 2? At the moment the forecasts have been revised downwards for what concerns Apple smartphones as a whole (-10% compared to the previous pre-health crisis), with 4.5 million iPhones less shipped (41.5 million).
The Chinese brand is mainly based on online sales, reducing the risks of a sales collapse compared to competitors Oppo and Vivo. Despite this, a 10 percentage point drop is expected compared to previous estimates, with 2.47 million smartphones shipped in the quarter (data very similar to those recorded in Q1 2019).
2.4 million and 1.7 million: this is estimated by shipments in Q1 2020, with a drop, also in this case, compared to the previous data (-14 and -15% respectively). The "fault" is attributable in particular to the large percentage of offline sales by the two brands, especially in China.
What will happen in the second quarter of the year? Once you understand that Q1 will necessarily be negative, Q2 will depend on the possible solution of the crisis, as well as on the situation of the warehouses where smartphones and components are stored. TrendForce remains optimistic: smartphone demand is only postponed. It will be like this?