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I see, I foresee and I see (1)

Did our readers think they could escape Macity's biannual vaticinatory exercise? Did our loyal supporters believe that the management of their favorite web page had decided to spare the most useless journalistic exercise that the history of Internet printing remembers? Did they hope, by virtue of their loyalty and for the consequent recognition that whoever directs these pages could gliss and for the first time in years now avoid the traditional and nefarious "I see, I foresee and see"?

But no. Welcome as the nougat in the Christmas basket that you sent to your only uncle with the dentures, useful as the agenda that your bank gives you, as chronometric as a Milan-Rome flight under the holidays, here are Macity's predictions on what you will see and you won't see in San Francisco. The only exercise of pure fantasy that is less likely to find confirmation in the reality of the promise of a decrease in taxes and an increase in pensions, once again presents itself in its usual form: percentages, speculations, delusions and a pinch, but right a pinch of seriousness.

Apple PDA: 0.5%The Apple PDA is the lucky charm of "I see, I foresee and Stravedo". By now his chances of peeping out are so small that in terms of a low percentage of odds only beaten by Macity's purchase of Apple. But precisely because a lucky charm we open this edition again with this little paragraph. Why assign 0.5%? Because over and over again (including one recently) Apple has made it clear that it has no faith in the world of PDAs in the strict sense. Because at the moment it is a difficult universe, because the general economic climate is not at all suitable. Because Apple seems oriented towards a completely different direction. Yes, but why 0.5% then and not 0%? Why half the odds of last summer …

iPhone (hardware): 10%Many speculate that Apple, instead of a PDA, could launch a cell phone with its brand. The idea seems largely unlikely to us. It is true that Cupertino has repeatedly shown that he has great consideration in the future of mobile phones and pocket gadgets as an indispensable accessory, almost an extension of the PC, but from here to think that he can launch his own phone on the market, Street. The overcrowded segment, manufacturers are struggling to make profits by selling millions of pieces, the technology not at all settled and the UMTS networks that could impose a new vital push are still to be found almost everywhere. Better to work with those who specialize in this segment to ensure full compatibility with the Mac rather than throwing yourself headlong into an expensive business and which inevitably, in order to be successful, should fully consider (and support) the Windows world as well.

New digital gadget: 15%A new digital gadget is also a possibility that has been rumored for a long time. Here, too, in a purely theoretical line, one could think of something that has to do with iMovie as iPod has to do with iTunes. In practice, any object of this type, capable of handling video and audio, would have too high a cost and too little use to make sense. We leave a door open only because the imagination of Jobs and the Apple engineers could "discover" in his imagination something that we cannot guess.

iPhone (software): 25%The hypothesis of a new iApplication entirely dedicated to the world of mobile phones and telephony, put forward by some site, could have a much more sense than that of a real mobile phone. It could be a sort of suite of programs capable of integrating with a mobile phone, managing all its functions in a complete and transparent manner. The problem that Apple currently has iSync that does (more or less) these functions even if for now it is certified only for Sony Ericsson phones. Something more complete and "dedicated", perhaps also able to manage more complex functions, possible, especially in view of the inevitable appearance of Bluetooth on all portable machines, but also in this case the times do not seem the right ones.

New laptops: 30%The arrival of new laptops for the Macworld would deserve no more than 10% probability. Too recent the introduction of Titanium and iBook revisions to think of something like this. In fact, in the course of the last few months we have repeatedly mentioned a new Apple laptop, or rather a subnotebook of the type we are used to in the PC world. Such a product, purely theoretical in line, would make sense given that these are machines that are proving to have a hold on the market. In the second instance, Apple could homologate its range of laptops to that of desktops, where the iBook would pair with the eMac, the Titanium with the G4 and the new laptop that, by technology and target, with the iMac. Finally, Apple would expand its offer just as the market is proving to be very receptive in the field of "mobile" technologies. In reality, all of this, on closer inspection, remains another difficult chapter, given that the market is dictating iron rules to those who want to have some chance of overcoming the difficult economic situation. The first of these rules: don't change anything that works and the laptop segment for Apple works very well.

New motherboard and new technologies: 35%New technologies have been boiling for some time. Many of these are heirs to others already in use in Macs: FireWire 2, USB 2, IEEE 802.11g, DVD-R 4x. Others are entirely new Hypertransport, ApplePI BIU, high speed Ram. There is no doubt that many if not all of these will arrive on the Mac sooner or later integrated on a new motherboard. There is also no doubt that for some of these, already ready, Apple only has to make a decision based essentially on marketing. The hypothesis that on any new machines some of these technologies may appear, therefore rather robust, although they vary in percentage depending on their affinity with the platform (it is easier for FireWire 2 than USB 2 to arrive, for example). But the impression that Apple reserves the real "big bang" for later versions of its machines, combining a revolutionary motherboard with a revolutionary processor. For this reason, we are aiming for a transition adoption with the arrival (probable but certainly not) of some news, postponing a substantial change of the hardware at the end of next year.

(Go on?)