No iPhones to WWDC and Jobs' return as chairman of the board instead of CEO. Here are the (almost) certainties that Gene Munster, analyst with Piper Jaffray, would have managed to derive from the synthetic press release released today by Apple in which it is known that it will be Schiller and a group of executives who will keep the WWDC keynote.
According to the analyst, one of the most attentive Apple observers but also one of those who in the past more than others let themselves be guided by sites dedicated to indiscretions and by an instinct to transform indisputable syllogisms into indisputable clues, that Apple will not present any iPhone to WWDC it would be clearly written in the Press Release where we only talk about Snow Leopard and iPhone Os 3.0: 'as indicated, we think Apple will focus only on these two software aspects – says Munster -; in our opinion, Apple will hold a special event in late June or early July for the launch of an iPhone family. ' Munster also adds that there will be two models and that one of the two will also be available on the Chinese market by the end of the summer.
Regarding instead the return of Jobs as president of the board of directors, the deductive or inductive processes are less clear, even if it seems that Munster derives this belief from the fact that Jobs deserters the WWDC and from the good state of health of Apple, now " vaccinated ?to the absence of Jobs.
Leaving aside the question of the return of his boss and his future role in Apple on which everyone (including Munster) would do well to have few certainties, the rest of the opinions expressed by the analyst appears entirely questionable.
Firstly, the fact that Apple won't launch the iPhone doesn't mean I won't present it at all. Last year, Apple launched iPhone on July 11, but presented it on June 9. That the press release does not talk about the new phone and does not even mention it does not mean practically anything and an analyst who, dealing with Apple by profession, should have known it well, should have learned that Cupertino never anticipates what he intends to do, much less ago in a press release. If the knowledge of Apple's mechanisms was not sufficient to elaborate this type of forecast, perhaps it would be enough to consult the press release issued by Apple in the imminence of WWDC last year where the iPhone 3G topic was not even remotely touched when instead the phone was the great protagonist of the event.
On the other hand, a simple reasoning should make us imagine that Apple cannot, in any way, arrive at the beginning of July without having announced, creating the usual expectation, a new model of iPhone. During the first week of availability of the EDGE version in 2007, Apple sold hundreds of thousands of iPhones and made AT&T enter into an equal number of contracts; what marketing genius (or which analyst) can imagine that Cupertino can afford to expire those agreements, letting its current customers have time to think about whether or not to abandon AT&T or decide whether to buy, perhaps, a Pre or a new one Android, having as its only term of comparison not official information, but the uncertain rumors about the new iPhone shot from some Internet site?
For another: to announce the iPhone in late June or early July would mean going to launch in late July or early August; a complex product, for relations with mobile operators, the education of call center staff and logistics, such as iPhone, cannot be announced today to be put on sale the next day. A presentation at the beginning of July would mean, unless some acrobatic booking or contract extension system, would leave at least another month between the expiration of the contracts for the iPhone EDGE (or 3G) and the start of the new contracts . This is without counting that the new iPhone would end up being put on sale when in Europe at the height of summer and some very important markets (like ours) at least 4 weeks after the resumption of normal commercial activity. At that point the phone should be sold by street vendors under umbrellas to make a turnover, leaving in any case half the (or more) of the quarter that ends at the end of September uncovered.
Finally: given that iPhone Os 3.0 will be presented widely at WWDC and that, of course, will include new features supported only by new hardware, developers can be left in the dark about these features as it would be a must if Apple did not mention to the new iPhone? Cupertino would have the opportunity to face a huge number of developers to evangelize but would not give them any clue as to what they can do with a new hardware device. Or maybe you think you can tell developers everything that will be the new iPhone and think that under the confidentiality agreement nothing leaks out?
As for the launch of the iPhone with reduced functions which Munster seems to have believed for some time, some doubt should arise from the words of the Apple managers who said they were not interested in covering the entire smartphone market, but that they had identified a well-niche precise and this niche does not seem to be that of low-cost phones. But, in any case, whether it's a low-cost iPhone or not, Munster should know that during the recent presentation of the tax results Tim Cook, answering a question about it said: 'We will want to arrive in China within the next year and we are working to succeed in doing it, like saying that we are not talking about summer 2009, but about "by the end of 2010". Munster can certainly have a different opinion and think that Apple managers scatter smoke screens, but that he does not remember it or that, at least, he does not remember it to his customers, it seems really strange, since it was he who asked the question in question.