contador Saltar al contenido

The first million iPhones according to Goldman Sachs

United States first, Hong Kong last. Here is the head and tail of a ranking compiled by the prestigious Goldman Sachs thanks to which you should learn the virtuous and the least countries in welcoming iPhone. The ranking would refer to the first three marketing days, that is Friday 11 July, Saturday 12 July and Sunday 13 July. The days of boom and queues, the days of the great assault and the first million iPhones. Understanding where the iPhones went would certainly be interesting, too bad that the ranking, at least as it is exposed by Medialets, a company specializing in advertising on mobile devices, leaves more than a few doubts.

First of all, the fact that 81% of the telephones would have ended up in the US, Japan, Germany and France, first of all stood out. Beyond the fact that it should be explained how it was possible to make an estimate of the sales in France on July 21 (day of the elaboration of the statistics) where iPhone was put on sale from July 18, if really things had gone so could talk about Apple's bankruptcy policy in spreading the phone on a global scale. Above all, Apple should have made a mistake more than anything given the ranking position of Italy, one of the "top" countries in the world in terms of mobile telephony, placed just in 13th place with 8000 miserable iPhones sold. A really bad figure even if it refers to only two days as far as our country is concerned (on Sunday practically all shops in Italy are closed).

For our part, having some knowledge both of the influx of people in the shops during the white night, and in the following two days and on the number of iPhones assigned to each shop, we tend to give greater reliance on figures reported by other analysts who place sales in our country in the order of tens of thousands.

The logic itself, beyond estimates, says it would be truly surprising if nations like Austria, Sweden or Holland had managed to absorb more phones than Italians have bought. Just think that Sonera in Finland, another of the countries where according to Goldman Sachs more iPhones have been sold than in Italy, has 2.5 million active lines; Vodafone and Tim in Italy about 60 million. Any result that fixes iPhone sales in Italy to less than ten times compared to the Nordic country should be classified as a disappointment; having sold a thousand phones less than they were sold in Finland should have prompted Apple to tear up the contract that tied it to Vodafone and Tim already on Monday.

And that there is something that does not turn in the ranking is also captured by other not negligible details. For example, no Italian operator would have sold more than 2000 telephones, which is obviously impossible given that there are two operators and that in Italy, according to the tables, 8000 would have been sold. Unless you want to think that Tim sold less than 2000 telephones and the other 6000 are included in the 18 thousand generically attributed to Vodafone. But to think 44% of the iPhones sold by Vodafone all over the world ended up in Italy pure madness.

Finally, it remains to be asked how it is possible that iPhone represents 0.38% of the base of contracts in postpaid in Italy and that this is the percentage, more or less, of the rest of all the other countries. Even assuming that in countries like Spain, Holland, Sweden and Austria, just to name a few, there is a greater habit of drawing up contracts instead of signing rechargeable cards, 0.38% of iPhones should represent a significantly larger figure than of countries that have 10 times less lines than Italy. Not to mention the fact that in Italy the vast majority of iPhones were sold without a contract, which should contribute to further inflating the figures in relation to other countries.

On balance, therefore, our opinion that it is better to take with the springs both the ranking of Goldman Sachs and the considerations carried out on it by Medialets, pending more precise information and more in line with what, even at a superficial level, it is perceived in the air.