An article that appeared a few days ago on Bloomberg.com, by Matthew Lynn, explains why the iPhone is destined to die.
First of all intended for a few gadget lovers, in terms of impact on the industry instead, far from relevant. For the competition nothing but another mobile phone, Nokia and Motorola will certainly not be shaking for the future of their companies, he says Lynn.
There are three good reasons – he says – for it to be early to sell Nokia shares.
The first, that Apple jumped on the carriage a little late. He did not invent the PC or the MP3 player, but appeared on the market early enough to make a difference. In the saturated mobile market, it will be difficult to place new ones.
Second, large mobile phone manufacturers need cooperation from large networks, especially high-end ones. Apple has never been good when it comes to working with other companies, if it were it would be called Microsoft.
It should be added that even if there was interest, let's say Vodaphone wanted to be the exclusive distributor of iPhone for the United Kingdom, others like Nokia would try to hinder by any means that this happens, and would try to convince Vodaphone, through various incentives , to prevent this from happening. There would be a tough exchange of views between companies that know each other well, and it may be difficult for Apple to negotiate.
Lastly – Lynn tells us – it should be remembered that the iPhone is a 'defensive' product, created by Apple to protect the iPod, under attack, by new and fierce producers, who add the possibility of listening to music even on their own mobile phones.
But defensive products do not work, the public wants news, and not updates of old concepts. Especially since there is the problem of the target, or to whom is the Apple home phone addressed? business class, but Apple is a consumer company.
Will your accounting department be willing to drop the money so you can listen to Eminem before going to a meeting?
In some ways this is a shame: the sector is becoming a cartel between network operators and few producers, there would be a need for healthy, fresh competition …
They will probably be produced with less ambitions, less functions, but better to make calls, or with batteries of infinite duration, or chargers that do not weigh three times the phone.
This will not be the iPhone – concludes Matthew Lynn – Apple will sell a few to a few fans, but it will not be a product that will leave a lasting mark on the industry. [By Iain Antony]